2011 NFL Playoffs: Day Six

February 6, 2011

Super Bowl XLV

Let’s clear the NFC Championship Game questions up right now:

Yes, Jay Cutler was really injured. Yes, he is tough. Yes, I think he should be the Bears QB of the future. I, personally, think he was injured much earlier in the game than we will ever know.

jay cutler

(Jay Cutler)

No, the Bears organization did not handle the whole thing very well. Like, questionable. What does that mean? Who decides if the player comes back into the game or not? And, Lovie Smith, can I get a question answered: Why was Todd Collins QB2? Collins was terrible every time he played during the regular season. I am not sure that Caleb Hanie would have made much of a difference any earlier, but, damnit if the kid sure did play hard.

Why was FOX so late to reporting about Cutler’s injury? And, as I said on the podcast, I think FOX likes showing Cutler pouting and looking disinterested (pictured below). I think it feeds the narrative about him (an aloof, prima donna, jerk, diva). The fans, including many in Chicago, seem to like making Cutler’s disposition a part of the analysis. Really, he played poorly in the 1st half, regardless of when he was injured.

Cutler

Okay, enough ranting about the Bears. Congratulations to the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Making it to a Super Bowl is verily an accomplishment to be proud of. Not sure if you noticed, especially you, Richard Head, but I am making some money this playoffs. I started with $1000; now, my bankroll is at $1650. Very nice! Let’s see if I can find some more angles to increase that even more.

(As always, Bodog is my primary source for odds; and the home team is in CAPS - although, that means very little since the game is being played in Dallas, Texas.

(The official logo, owned by the NFL.)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS

These teams played late in the 2009 season. Ben Roethlisberger threw a TD pass on the final play to win the game (37-36). The teams are very similar to the ones that played that day. The Packers won’t have a few players (Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Mark Tauscher, Nick Barnett, Brandon Chillar), and the Steelers offensive line is much different, because of injuries (Max Starks, Willie Colon, Maurkice Pouncey).

Troy Polamalu

(Troy Polamalu)

Did you know that Troy Polamalu, the current NFL Defensive Player Of The Year (DPOTY), did not play in that game? I had forgotten that too. But, how healthy is the DPOTY? I saw him miss two critical tackles against the Jets. His play makes the Steelers defense so exceptional. Well, James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons are noteworthy players, too.

I mentioned that Maurkice Pouncey is not playing, announced the day before the game. Drafting Pouncey, late in the 1st round of the 2010 draft, is the type of move that makes the Steelers organization great. Centers are not usually valued as 1st round investments (See: Tackles, DEs, DTs, DBs and QBs). Since centers tend to get overlooked, it feels like they are even more valuable when they are drafter highly, and subsequntly inserted into the lineup. Who knows what will happen in the future, but it sure seems like Pouncey is going to be a starter and Pro Bowler for 10+ years. Doug Legursky should be replacing him as the starter in the Super Bowl.

Legursky might have his hands full. That is not to say that he is known as a chronic holder. From my eyes, I thought he played really well against the Jets. But, B.J. Raji - Packers starting nose guard - is more like Haloti Ngata of the Ravens, than the Jets’ Sione Pouha.

BJ Raji

(B.J. Raji)

The amount of pressure that Raji, Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett generate on the inside of the line is integral to the outcome of the game, that is, if the Packers are going to try to isolate the Steelers second string offensive tackles. I found it interesting that the Packers have allowed 4.7 yards per rush this year. What? Is that true? The Steelers were the best (3.0 yards per rush) in the league against the running game.

Yes, Aaron Rodgers (6 TD, 2 INT, 109.2 passer rating) has been amazing this playoffs. He will need to be for the Packers to win. Roethlisberger (2 TD, 2 INT, 75.5 passer rating) has been average, statistically.

“Where, Oh Where” is the difference between these teams? How am I going to make money on this game?

The Bet:

The Packers (-3) are a slight favorite; the over/under (45.5) is right in the ‘public prediction zone.’ (Ed. note: The +/- moved to 46 on Super Bowl morning.)

Christina Aguilera will hold “brave” for over ($50) six seconds. The Packers will win ($50) the coin toss (-101), it will ($50) be tails (-101). FOX will mention “Brett Favre” over (+/- 2.5) is ($50) a sure thing - Joe Buck and Troy Aikman won’t be able to help themselves.

Rajon Rondo will ($50) have more points + assists (pick) than the Packers final score. LeBron James will ($50) score more 1st half points (-1.5) against the LA Clippers than Packers 1st half points. The highest rated commercial will ($100) be Pepsi Max (6/1) on USA Today’s Ad Meter.

There will not ($50) be a score in the first 7:30 of the game (+140).Yes, there will be ($100) a special teams or defensive TD scored (+140) in the game. Neither ($50) team will score three unanswered times.

I don’t believe this game will be as close as everyone thinks - almost everyone. I’m taking the Steelers ($600) money line (+120); also, I love ($400) the under (27-16). MVP will be ($50) Rashard Mendenhall (15/2).