The only time that the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have played each other in the playoffs was December 14, 1941.
I’ll wait here and let you read that again.
The Pittsburgh Steelers run in the elite circle of NFL franchises. The New York Jets have been the talk of the town - well, they’ve done quite a bit of that talking themselves. Let’s all give the Jets a round of applause for taking out the New England Patriots. For months, the experts, sharps and public had been pounding the Patriots Super Bowl story. Well, again, we - Yes, me included - were all wrong.
The current odds (courtesy of Bodog) for Super Bowl XLV:
Green Bay Packers (8/5)
Chicago Bears (5/1)
New York Jets (7/2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2/1)
My betting budget is at $1175, at least I am positive for the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers vs. CHICAGO BEARS
I am a Bears fan; yet, I am dubious as to how they were 11-5 and the second seed in the NFC. I think, Lovie Smith has a key to the room at Halas Hall with “Smoke & Mirrors” on the door. Maybe opening that door will reveal what really is behind the Bears being deserving of hosting the NFC Championship Game.
Is this game about Jay Cutler vs. Charles Woodson; Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs vs. Aaron Rodgers; Chris Harris and Danieal Manning vs. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson?
I’m confused. I’m having trouble looking at this game without the passion of a fan. I consulted my dad. Here is what he said:
“I have the same problem when it comes to the Bears. My heart says go with the Bears. But they are going to need big plays from their special teams.”
But, I think my brother puts in more succinctly. Take it away bro:
“If Cutler and the o-line play well, bears win. If not, pack wins. The shitty thing is the pack absolutely will not let Hester beat them, so the o-line either wins or loses this game.”
The Bears are better on special teams than every team they play. Everyone knows about Devin Hester, and, maybe even Robbie Gould. But, what about the coverage teams? The punt coverage team is excellent. Brad Maynard, Corey Graham, Nick Roach and Rashied Davis have stood out. For two reasons, this advantage will loom large:
(Brad Maynard)
The Bears need the clock to run - fewer possessions will mean fewer opportunities for the Packers to score. A high scoring game is bad for the Bears, good for the Packers.
The Bears need to force the Packers to play small ball - short passes and rushes - to matriculate the ball down the field. Continually forcing long drives will increase the chances for Hester to touch the ball.
The one thing I noticed in the Packers win over the Falcons was how poorly the Falcons tackled. The Bears had better do a better job of tackling Aaron Rodgers when they get the opportunity.
I don’t know why I am even betting on this game, but here goes.
The Bet:
The line has moved in favor of the Packers this week, from -3 to -4. Normally, I don’t like road favorites, well, unless they are the better team. Sadly, I think the Packers are the better team. I’m taking them ($200) to cover. Ouch, that hurt to write. Some props: I like the over ($50) on Aaron Rodgers to throw an INT (+/- 0.5); and the under ($50) on Matt Forte’s rushing yards (+/- 72.5)
New York Jets vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
These teams played in week 15. Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller did not play for the Steelers in that game. The Jets ran the ball well (27 attempts, 102 yards), and Mark Sanchez played well (81.1 passer rating). The key play was Mewelde Moore being tackled in the end zone for a safety. This score made the Steelers need a TD, not a game-tying FG, on the final possession.
I consulted my dad again, he said,
“I think the Steelers will beat the Jets. Big Ben can move and keep a play alive while Brady couldn’t seem to do that.”
And my brother said,
“Jets win: Why? Have you seen that shit ass O-line of the Steelers? Ben will have to make a ton of huge plays; Revis is finally healthy again from his hammy issue, and J-E-T-S can throw as many crazy looks as any team. Honestly, if Sanchez plays anywhere near like last week - and don’t forget the Sanchize’s rep was built by playing unreal in last years playoffs. The Jets will win. And Polamalu isn’t nearly the player who created havoc most of the season and his career which makes the D merely good instead of dominant.”
They both are touching on something. The Steelers O-line is not healthy. I have no idea how many left tackles they’ve used this year … 4, 5, 6? Ben Roethlisberger makes plays after the initial play has fallen apart, as well as anyone in the league. His playground skills are what makes him so good. It is almost as if the pre-snap read is less important for him than most QBs. The Jets rely on confusing this read.
(Brad Smith)
For the Jets, the versatile Brad Smith is planning on playing in the game. He returns kicks, lines up at flanker, and can take wildcat-like snaps at QB.
The Bet:
The Steelers (-4) will be tested by the Jets. However, I think ($200) they will win by making more scattered plays in all facets of the game. I am taking the under ($50) on Mark Sanchez TD passes (+/- 1.5); and the over ($50) on Rashard Mendenhall’s rushing yards (+/- 72.5). Also, I’m betting ($25) Heath Miller to score the 1st TD (12/1) of the game.
Enjoy the games everyone.
Go Bears!
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dailydouble84 posted this
