Wild Card Weekend was pretty good, huh. Who had the Seahawks being the only home team to win? Me neither, as my betting total shows. I’ve got some work to do this weekend - the best weekend of football of the year! - if I am going to make some money.
My betting budget sits as $962.
(As always, the odds are from Bodog, and the home team’s in caps.)
Baltimore Ravens vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The NFL understands what this rivalry is all about. Jeff Triplette’s crew will be working the game. They lead the league in personal foul penalties called (7) and unsportsmanlike conduct calls (5) for the season. They were the fourth highest crew in penalty yards per game (114.9 yards).
Since 2003, the Ravens have defeated the Steelers eight times; the Steelers have defeated the Ravens nine times. Each team has scored 302 points in those 17 meeting. Both have standout, HOF-like safeties (Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu); big, strong-armed QBs (Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger); and young, well-respected head coaches (John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin). The image of these teams is physical, defensive-minded football, which hearkens back to the teams of the 70s (Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Vikings). These teams ooze traditional football. If I didn’t have a favorite team already, I’d probably choose one of these teams to root for. Can you tell how much I love this rivalry?
(Maurkice Pouncey)
Each team won at the other’s home during the 2010 season. However, Roethlisberger did not play in the week 4 game. He did play in the week 13 game and had his nose broken, but continued to play. He is healthy for this game. The only real injury issues are Matt Birk (Ravens C) and Aaron Smith (Steelers DE), the former is probable, the ladder is doubtful.
In his career, Anquan Boldin has played against the Steelers four times. He has some pretty impressive numbers (28 receptions, 388 yards, 2 TD). If he gets positioned against Bryant McFadden, look for him to continue his success against the Steelers.
I love the matchup of Maurkice Pouncey (Steelers C) and Haloti Ngata (Ravens DT). Watch to see if Ngata can use his power to disrupt the middle of the Steelers protection schemes for Roethlisberger, especially on first and second downs.
(Haloti Ngata)
(Is it just me … does it seem like to only time Roethlisberger gets sacked is when he throwing the ball away is an even worse decision? He doesn’t seem to get sacked if it will make things worse. This is my perception: he will throw it away on 2nd & 6; bu,t on 3rd & 6, he will take the sack, knowing that a punt isn’t the end of the world. I don’t know, maybe I’m wrong.)
The Bet:
I’m going to take a chance on this game. The Steelers are favored (-3) to win. I like that bet. However, I like winning money more. Let’s move the Steelers to margins of victory of 4-6 ($100) (making it 5/1) and 7-10 ($50) (making it 7/1) points. None of the prop bets for this game excite me.
Green Bay Packers vs. ATLANTA FALCONS
Is James Starks about to become the Timmy Smith for this generation? Smith had very pedestrian numbers during the 1987 season, but went nuts in the Redskins playoff march to Super Bowl XXII. Starks was the story coming out the win against the Eagles. He should be a major factor for the Pakcers against the Falcons. Why? Starting with week 10, the Falcons rush defense has been awful, allowing 932 yards (5.4 yards per rush) and 6 TDs.
(James Starks)
Green Bay lost to Atlanta in week 12, mainly because Aaron Rodgers fumbled at the goal line; and the Packers special teams were atrocious, again. It isn’t new to talk about how bad the Packers are on special teams. But, will they be that bad again?
I feel like the Falcons (-1.5) are the least respected number one seed ever. They were 13-3, holding a death grip on the NFC for the majority of the season. Matt Ryan doesn’t lose at home. He is 20-2 (his two losses being to QBs Jay Cutler and Drew Brees). Ryan has not won a playoff game. Yet, until the victory over the Eagles, neither had Rodgers.
The Bet:
Going to play ($50) the over here (+/- 44.5). And, I like the Packers to win. But, I’ll be betting ($25) on each of the halftime/final leader bets of Packers/Packers (3/2), Falcons/Packers (11/2) and Tie/Packers (15/1).
Enjoy the games. I’ll be back tomorrow.
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dailydouble84 posted this
